Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
